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Sunday, February 01, 2004

Episode II: The Search Wars 

Economist.com | Microsoft: Sir Bill and his dragons--past, present and future

NYT: The Search Wars

This seems to be a hot topic this week: will Google be flattened by Microsoft in a similar way to Netscape, which was destroyed by Microsoft when Internet Explorer was distributed in Windows?

The NYT's covers the possibilities, and gives an interesting look into Google. One interesting point, aside from the topic of will Google be destroyed, is that of corporate culture before and after an initial public offering (IPO):

"Google's financial success is clear. In 2001, the company had virtually no revenue; in the past year, it recorded sales of almost $1 billion and profits of about $350 million, according to several executives familiar with the company's private financial figures.
...
"But many veteran Silicon Valley executives are skeptical about Google's ability to hold its corporate culture together once it goes public later this year. The initial public offering, much anticipated, is expected to create hundreds of instant multimillionaires among its regular employees, but will leave many others hired as contractors without significant gains. As a result, some people fret that Google is fostering a class society in its ranks."

Just as power corrupts, so too does money. I suspect that such jealousies will hurt Google in a big way; as employees compete to earn stock options, they will resent one another, and be more likely to defect to the dark side...I mean Microsoft.

The Economist discusses Microsoft and its past, present, and future as a monopoly, and the struggles it has had with the Justice Department and will have with the EU.

"Microsoft may some day conclude that the costs of constant regulatory battles—legal costs, fines, bad publicity, and bad relationships with governments—exceed the benefits of its Windows monopoly. This seems unimaginable now. But unless governments find the political will and legal arguments needed to break the firm up, it may be the only way its legal battles will ever end."

Will Darth Gates hang up his lightsaber and stop wacking startups while they're still in the crib? I suspect not in the near future; Microsoft enjoys its position of power, and it won't give it up without a fight. Whether that fight will lead to a beheding of Bill by a regulatory body or voluntarily surrender to competition and the Light remains to be seen.

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