Wednesday, February 04, 2004
From Beyond: October Surprises
Mr. Safire of the NYTimes channels Nixon from beyond the grave for a an interview about the Presidential election. Of interest is the exchange about what issue will dominate the campaign:
Alright, all you other pundits out there. What will be the suprise of the election? Place your bets now.
Based on not much in particular (perhaps hope?), I'm going to wager that Bin Laden is captured before the election.
Q: Will the dominant issue in the campaign be jobs or Iraq or health care?
RN: You forget the Quemoy-Matsu syndrome. What decides a close race is how candidates react to an October surprise. What if bin Laden is caught, or "Dr. Germs" spills the beans about Iraqi anthrax, or our casualties continue? What about a White House scandal, or some revelation about a candidate's liberalism, or an accident or a heart attack? What if the market falls out of bed or there's a terrorist attack or the Chinese move on Quemoy and Matsu?
Q: Yes — what if?
RN: Most crises help incumbents.
Alright, all you other pundits out there. What will be the suprise of the election? Place your bets now.
Based on not much in particular (perhaps hope?), I'm going to wager that Bin Laden is captured before the election.
Comments:
Post a Comment
