Thursday, February 05, 2004
Iran: I told you so?
Thanks to Oxblog for the tip.
It may be a bit early to declare that I was correct and civil war will occur, but it is looking more and more likely now.
It seems my suspicions about Iran (that each side had too much at stake and would lose too much credibility if they backed down, thus stopping them from compromising), which I thought were going to prove false yesterday when a compromise was announced by Khomeini, seem to be proving to be more and more correct (the interview of Montazeri seems to indicate a polarization of the country between democrats and oligarchs instead of on religous lines); the conservatives are rejecting a compromise and the moderates are therefore are standing by their boycott of the elections as they demand free and fairi ones. Iran may indeed facing the legitimacy test that I discussed Tuesday night.
None of the major papers are covering this story today on their websites. It's quite a disappointment, especially since no compromise means that the chance for civil war is just as great as it was on Sunday when I declared that this issue matters and deserves much more coverage (I called for more coverage with support from Oxblog monday as well).
Wake up, media, the world is beginning to shake.
It may be a bit early to declare that I was correct and civil war will occur, but it is looking more and more likely now.
It seems my suspicions about Iran (that each side had too much at stake and would lose too much credibility if they backed down, thus stopping them from compromising), which I thought were going to prove false yesterday when a compromise was announced by Khomeini, seem to be proving to be more and more correct (the interview of Montazeri seems to indicate a polarization of the country between democrats and oligarchs instead of on religous lines); the conservatives are rejecting a compromise and the moderates are therefore are standing by their boycott of the elections as they demand free and fairi ones. Iran may indeed facing the legitimacy test that I discussed Tuesday night.
None of the major papers are covering this story today on their websites. It's quite a disappointment, especially since no compromise means that the chance for civil war is just as great as it was on Sunday when I declared that this issue matters and deserves much more coverage (I called for more coverage with support from Oxblog monday as well).
Wake up, media, the world is beginning to shake.
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