Wednesday, February 04, 2004
Iran: Pressure Relieved?
The Moscow Times is reporting that Khomeini is attempting to relieve the pressure over the disqualified candidates by ordering a review of their status.
The review will occur under the intelligence agency, not the a conservative oversite body (the Guarding Council?) as the WaPo reports.
It seems that the crisis has been averted, since the intelligence ministry is controlled by reformists; most of the disqualified candidates will likely be reinstated.
Khamenei had this to say during a state television broadcast:
So, revolution is postponed in Iran. But what is the fallout of this struggle? It seems that the reformists have won because they will be largely reinstated. But will the Guardian Council attempt to rebuff them by other means in the future? Iran went to the brink here, and the clerics have attempted to avert a long fall. Will the political tension that has resulted from this crisis cause the government to malfunction in the future, since many have lost credibility?
Unless another situation develops, the next large event in Iran will be the upcoming elections. Recently the voter turnout has been a meager 10-15%. Perhaps this crisis will motivate move people to vote. Or, perhaps because the supreme leader has exerted his influence by dictat, more voters will be disillusioned by the superficial constitutionality of the Iranian government and turnout will be worse.
Then, the Guardian council and conservatives would have their victory, since they have done well in elections with low turnout.
The Iranian press should act and publish the interview by Supreme Ayatollah Montazeri. The press and the students can still bring democracy to Iran even now that the crisis is cooling, if only they will act.
I encourage them to throw of their chains and seize their freedom.
UPDATE: Patrick Belton added this at Oxblog:
The review will occur under the intelligence agency, not the a conservative oversite body (the Guarding Council?) as the WaPo reports.
It seems that the crisis has been averted, since the intelligence ministry is controlled by reformists; most of the disqualified candidates will likely be reinstated.
A Cabinet minister indicated that most of the candidates, but not all, were likely to be restored to the ballot by the review. ... What makes the new review different is that it is to be conducted by a ministry that is nominally under the control of reformists.
Khamenei had this to say during a state television broadcast:
"No one is allowed to refuse to carry out his legal responsibilities because of his opposition," Khamenei said, referring to the provincial governors' stand. "Avoiding one's responsibilities by way of resignation, or other forms, is illegal and religiously forbidden."
He attacked reformist lawmakers for their protests against the disqualifications.
"Some had excessive demands and resorted to bullying to push their objectives. They put pressure on the president and the Guardian Council and parliamentary speaker, who resisted the pressure," he said.
So, revolution is postponed in Iran. But what is the fallout of this struggle? It seems that the reformists have won because they will be largely reinstated. But will the Guardian Council attempt to rebuff them by other means in the future? Iran went to the brink here, and the clerics have attempted to avert a long fall. Will the political tension that has resulted from this crisis cause the government to malfunction in the future, since many have lost credibility?
Unless another situation develops, the next large event in Iran will be the upcoming elections. Recently the voter turnout has been a meager 10-15%. Perhaps this crisis will motivate move people to vote. Or, perhaps because the supreme leader has exerted his influence by dictat, more voters will be disillusioned by the superficial constitutionality of the Iranian government and turnout will be worse.
Then, the Guardian council and conservatives would have their victory, since they have done well in elections with low turnout.
The Iranian press should act and publish the interview by Supreme Ayatollah Montazeri. The press and the students can still bring democracy to Iran even now that the crisis is cooling, if only they will act.
I encourage them to throw of their chains and seize their freedom.
UPDATE: Patrick Belton added this at Oxblog:
Commentators have speculated that Khamenei is grasping for a compromise solution which permits elections to continue with a minimum of protest and, in so doing, preserves as much legitimacy as possible for the clerical organs of governance - the Guardian Council and his own office of Supreme Leader.
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