Thursday, August 26, 2004

Bush gains in polls... 

...are the Swift Boat Vet adds responsible? Now that the major media has picked up on this, major movement can be seen in the Iowa Electronic Markets Presidential Election data. The story has been out there for several weeks now, but only in the last few days has Bush began to climb in the polls. This seems to roughly correspond to when the major media began covering the story. Bush has also gained in the Gallup poll, especially in his job approval rating. So, I think one could conclude that the story is having an effect now that it is being covered by major media outlets.

Perhaps because of this gain by Bush, as was noted by a pundit on Foxnews today, Kerry is calling for debates, and not just some debates but weekly debates. The Fox pundit opines that a call for debates is usually the mark of a candidate that is worried about his prospects. That makes sense; Kerry is looking for a way to gain points on Bush, and there is no better way than to defeat him in a debate. However, maybe Kerry is overestimating his chances at winning a debate, if the call isn't merely a ploy to get a soundbite into the news. In both the Texas Gubernatorial Debates and the Presidential Debates, as most know, Bush surprisingly held his own and even won some of the debates. Mr. Kerry should keep the Texan's past victories in mind--after all, he isn't exactly the most charismatic candidate around (but then again, neither is Bush, although I think the President isn't nearly as bad as many rate him to be).

Even with the attempts to ignore this story and give Kerry his 15% as Glenn Reynolds notes, Kerry is hurting. If Bush can pull this out, maybe the major media will quit trying to control the republic, whether intentionally or not, and stick to balanced coverage (check out the "Slant-o-Meter" to see what I mean).

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