Saturday, February 19, 2005
Iran-Syria Alliance
Iran has vowed to back Syria against "challenges and threats" as both countries face strong US pressure.
"We are ready to help Syria on all grounds to confront threats," Iranian Vice-President Mohammad Reza Aref said after meeting Syrian PM Naji al-Otari.
It's worrying, of course. But not exactly unexpected, it makes perfect sense from an Iranian or Syrian point of view. There are only so many states willing to associate themselves with either of them, and their common goal of disrupting Iraqi elections and compromising the government of that country likely would gives some pretext to this sort of security cooperation.
This also throws some more light on Iraq. I cannot concieve that this is other than a balancing action on the part of the Iranian and Syrian governments. Assuming that there is cooperation between Iran and Syria in attempts to destabilize Iraq, it's likely that this alliance is born out of the failure in their Iraqi endeavors, even in light of the more recent election results. Read the words of Iranian Vice-President Mohammad Reza Aref again. It is difficult to reconcile those words commiting his country to a strategic defense of a secular nation with the idea of a government which seriously thinks that it might co-opt the Iraqi government using common religion, whatever the election results in that country.
On the Syrian side, this is made necessary by a weakening Syrian position on several fronts, necessitating a crackdown of sorts. The popular reaction to the assasination of Rafik Hariri is an example of the precarious Syrian position in Lebanon. Mr. Hariri was murdered in broad daylight in one of the most liberal districts of Beirut, and the popular resentment of the act has manifested itself in peaceful demonstrations, which are enough to worry the Syrian government and the pro-Syrian Hizbollah party. When demonstrators call for assistance from the international community in throwing off Syrian domination, the Syrian government hears "regime change" and panicks. The Hariri assasination was a part of the crackdown which misfired politically unlike Assad's replacing of the previous intelligence chief with his own brother, a move which only makes his regime more secure.
